What New Rada Will Give to the Society

No matter what coalition appears in the Supreme Rada - "wide" or "orange" - their social and economic course and foreign policy reference points will coincide in the main. "Orange" will resort more actively to nationalist rhetoric and more resolutely achieve an output of the Ukraine from East Slavonic space. But these details belong already to political tactics. Strategy of ruling coalition will be constant irrespective of the fact by what political forces it will be formed. Whether it is necessary to say that it will not be connected in any way with either aspiration of the Ukrainian society to restore social justice and create developed system of social guarantees, or its desire to establish relations of strategic partnership with Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan.

 

The results of voting on anticonstitutional early election differ not strongly from that were received in 2006. But those who wanted to be appointed, calculated everything correctly for themselves. Final substitution of democratic procedures by secret arrangements transferred the control over political process to the hands of oligarchical groupings. They can rule more rigidly or, on the contrary, to create visibility of political competition and freedom of speech. But in any case oligarchical dictatorship which could be restricted only by protest activity of the society is being established in the country (in this or that form).

 

During the last four years the country did a way from domination of bureaucracy to dictatorship of oligarchy. A question is not whether it was possible to transform the transition, absolutely senseless from the point of view of public progress, into a step to social justice and a genuine democracy. The main problem is that the mode established is a threat for social stability, economic development and national sovereignty. And if it will hold on for long enough, a chance to save state unity and to achieve honourable place in a world economic and political system will disappear.

 

Oligarchical dictatorship is not capable basically to give anything to a society. It can only conduct infinite conversations about its intention to struggle with corruption directed basically on intimidating of the average officials having provided support of a rate which answers to the interests of oligarchical groupings. The oligarchy plans to monopolize the right to receive benefits from corruption of the government, law enforcement bodies and judicial system having made it a duty of the society to pay off for the actions of the corrupted persons and consequences of the decisions made by them.

 

However social essence of a person and accordingly social requirements of a society, certainly, will not change because of the fat that sociopolitical system which refuses to take them into account will be established in the country. Therefore contradictions between public moods and actions of the authority will be only increasing. The fact that oligarchies managed to supersede from big policy all parties even a little hostile to the present mode, except for the Communist Party of Ukraine and to convince a society that in present conditions restoration of socialist mode is ostensibly not possible doesn't mean that the growth of protect moods will be stopped. But the less places for them will be in the parliament, the greater the possibility is that they will be manifested in especially dangerous forms - in a form of multi-regional, inter-confessional and inter-ethnical conflicts and collisions.

 

It's partly even on hand to the authority as thus the base for revival of the Nazi ideology is being created that allows to disguise oligarchical domination, to hide true reasons of public contradictions. Therefore the environment of the president has staked on support of Nazis. The difference is only that at creation of "orange" coalition it will become a part of a state policy whereas in case of the union of "Our Ukraine" and "Party of Regions" it will be carried out gradually but it will exist. It is possible to say with confidence that the management of the Party of regions which already let to know that it's ready practically on any concessions for the sake of preservation of the governmental posts, will not interfere with rehabilitation of insurgents of OUN-Ukrainian Rebel Army and with discredit of the Soviet past. Namely these components of official propagation create conditions for revival of Nazism.

 

Why today the leaders of the Party of Regions agree to decline its positions in the questions which have basic value for the Ukrainian society? Now even it's clear even to the most desperate optimists that the parliamentary fraction of a party will not struggle for the state status of the Russian language and will agree with a course on retraction of the country in NATO. The reason of such change is that as a result of early election three largest bourgeois parties received an opportunity to be released from obligations before all social layers except for oligarchy. Weakness of petty-bourgeois parties, small number and isolation from other society of large bourgeoisie have led to that the selective blocks financed by oligarches traditionally wanted to lean on support of petty-bourgeois layers expressing some of their requirements. Now oligarchical groupings decided that they can rule independently achieving electoral support by means of populist demagogy and manipulations, using elections for legitimacy of their unlimited lordship which didn't take into account public opinion. I am sure that new Supreme Rada will continue attack on the system of social guarantees and will get busy with property redistribution and sale of land. The situation will remain till the time when mass protest moods will be formed.

 

Certainly, such transformation of the parliament into a mechanism providing acceptance of laws which allow oligarchical groupings to dispose of national resources and to an environment of the president to deal with national interests, carrying out obligations before their foreign patrons will be necessarily added by large-scale refusal from democratic methods of management. We have already become witnesses of the situation when the executive authority puts itself above the law and operates judicial system on own will.

The president V. Jushchenko repeatedly declared his adherence to democracy, in practice he never showed respect to democratic institutes. The true attitude to democratic norms and requirements of the law became clear at once after his coming to power.

 

The president has already for a long time ceased to constrain his forcible manners. He clearly lets to know that he will achieve his aim using all methods. And if it is necessary for it that the Ukraine should enter NATO, the country will join by all means North Atlantic Alliance in spite of the fact that such geopolitic vector is being rejected by the Ukrainian society, deprives the Ukrainian state of the resources necessary for effective development. Thus Victor Jushchenko, the supporter of authoritative methods of management, is being considered in the West almost a pharos of democracy as he consistently defends the American geopolitic interests and the management of the USA has appropriated the right to decide what corresponds and what contradicts to democratic principles.

 

The Ukrainian president in firm footfall goes to tearing away by the Ukrainian people as it was made by other American protege Saakashvili.

 

Certainly, from the outside support promotes stability of a present mode: a lot of Ukrainian citizens wrongly accept it for the certificate of that the USA and the leading EU countries consider our country as full political ally and economic partner. But each month the number of those who continue to keep such illusions becomes less. The populist rhetoric which today became the main mean of reception of electoral support, most likely, already in the near future would lose its efficiency. That's why environment of the president more and more importance attach to concentration of all control levers of power and law-enforcement structures which should turn into absolute executors of presidential will.

 

Such actions of V. Iushchenko and J. Timoshenko present serious danger. It is obvious that the appropriated imperious powers will be used for blackmail and suppression of political contenders. The unity of oligarchical groupings will be provided including by means of power pressure and attempt of the communists and other political forces opposing present sociopolitical systems will be rigidly stopped including by use of power means.

 

But the main threat, in my opinion, consists nevertheless in the fact that power structures can be involved for support of a reviving Nazism and creation of favorable conditions for its development. Last decrees of V. Jushchenko and J.Timoshenko's applications concerning rehabilitations of insurgents of OUN-Ukrainian Rebel Army and destructions of the Soviet monuments confirm that they have openly followed a way of neo-fascism.

 

V. jushchenko wants to receive control above insurgents to pass to the active, offensive actions directed on the statement of authoritative dictatorship. He understands that, despite of capitulation of the Party of Regions, the post under him is unsteady as the policy of authority is rejected by society, besides artful J.Timoshenko is hot on his heels. It is indicative that, despite of the massed propaganda campaign and generous populist promises, "Our Ukraine" has collected only 14%. Meanwhile the president is going to achieve re-election for the second term. It is clear that in such situation democratic procedures will be soon shown to imitation and the political competition will be reduced to the struggle of oligarchical groupings under various masks. The ones who will oppose such state system risk to collide with repressive mechanisms of authority. The ground for realization of such script is already being prepared. The environment of the president has headed a course for destabilization of conditions in the country. The situation in Crimea is being purposely sharpened, interethnic intensity is being aggravated artificially on the peninsula that should create a reason to enter authoritarian authority in the country. 

 

It is impossible to hope that the new Supreme Rada can stop creation of dictatorship - it basically is incapable to give anything to a society. To prevent similar course of events in possible only for organized public resistance. The first step in this direction is already made: in Crimea where especially dangerous condition has been formed, creation of Antifascist front comes to the end. But the Ukrainian society which only starts to get rid of illusions still should prove its skill to struggle for own rights.