We Won't Recognize Our Army to 2011

All Russian semi-official organ literally choked with delight: all generals of the Russian army gathered to learn about prospects of Armed forces, as they say, firsthand - the traditional board of the Ministry of Defence was visited by Supreme Commander-in-Chief, president Dmitry Medvedev. From speechifications of the president and Minister of Defence reporters devoted to fatherland learned about extraordinary prospects which await the Russian army in the near future - starting directly from 2011. Obviously, nothing good awaits the army before this Rubikon term - they will start discharging officers and ensigns already this year.

Actually neither the president, nor minister said anything encouraging. In particular Dmitry Medvedev said:

"... I shall stop on a number of priority tasks.

The first task - increase of battle readiness of armies, not simply increase but qualitative increase, first of all due to strategic nuclear forces. They should guaranteed carry out all tasks on maintenance of military safety of our state. Besides there's in agenda such thing as change-over of all fighting units and forces in to category of constant readiness. I'll stress that it's a key component of new model or new shape of Armed Forces.

The second task - optimization of the structure and size of the army. I underline especially: one should take into account real conditions and character of potential threats in military planning, while long-term plans in the field of defense should be based on Strategy of national safety of Russia for the period till 2020 which in the near future should be ratified at Security Council.

The third and major task is - supplying of the army with the newest types of arms. Significant means are being directed on their development and purchase, even despite of those problems in finance sphere which we have today the volume of these means remains practically the same. A lot of units and forces were transmitted on modern equipment, from 2011scale rearming of the army and fleet would start".

Detailed elaboration of some items sounded by the president was continued already by Minister of Defence:

"- Three battalions of mobile earth rocket complexes and two mine launchers "Poplar - M" became operational. By 2016 these complexes will make a basis of all grouping;

- regular flights of strategic aircraft in shipping areas and economic zone of Russia were carried out. Strategic planes patrolled water areas of World ocean, carried out start-ups of cruise missiles on northern ranges. Flights of two Tu-160 to the Republic of Venezuela was accomplished;

- in the frameworks of realization of the program on equipment of Navy Feet with new underwater nuclear strategic boats of the project "Borej" equipped with rocket complex "Bulava" mooring tests of a head rocket underwater cruiser "Jury Dolgoruky" have been started".

So, "increase of battle readiness of the army" will be carried out "first of all due to strategic nuclear forces". Basically, SNF always were the main shock force even of the Soviet army. What can the Russian authority add to it? If to take into account that since the time of uppermost power of SNF of late Brezhnev times the quantity of fighting blocks decreased approximately in 4 times, the number of carriers also was reduced in times, rapid attack identification detection reporting system appeared destructed, some types of arms (the most effective, for example, fighting railway rocket complexes) were destroyed.

Here you are the answer of minister: "Three battalions of mobile earth rocket complexes and two mine launchers "Poplar - M" became operational. By 2016 these complexes will make a basis of all grouping". Existing industrial base is hardly capable to increase industrial parameters, simple arithmetics prompts - by 2016 the basis of rocket grouping of Strategic Nuclear Forces will consist from... 16 mine launchers. That is approximately at a level of China (though the basis Chinese Strategic Nuclear Forces is made from the rockets of average range which are destroyed by us following the agreement SNF-2).

As according to the beginning of 2008 there are 682 strategic carriers, capable to carry 3100 nuclear warheads in structure of strategic nuclear forces (SNF) of Russia. In comparison with 2007 the number of carriers was reduced on 39 units (5,3%) and the number of warheads - on 177 units (5,3%) .Тhat is with such rates by 2016 SNF will be reduced at least on 40%.

In the structure of Strategic Rocket Forces there are 430 rocket complexes, capable to carry 1605 nuclear warhaeds. Now there are 75 heavy rockets R-36МUТТH and R-36М2 (SS-18, Satan), 100 rockets UР-100NUТТH (SS-19), 201 land-based mobile system Poplar (SS-25), 48 complexes Poplar-M silo-based (SS-27) and six mobile complexes Poplar-M (SS-27) on arms of Strategic Rocket Forces. It's clear that all this riches, except for 6 mobile complexes Poplar-M and a part consisting from 48 silo-based Poplars-M should be liquidated. Even at the most optimistic view of things, it's called not "increase of alertness" but somehow on the contrary...

"Optimization of the size" of the army the president is talking about, certainly, is optimization aside reduction - it's already written a lot about it, 100 thousand officers will be axed this year. How can reduction of army and fleet on such number of professional officers increase its fighting capacity? It is a riddle, it's possible to read it only by experiment. Say, when the army was still Soviet, that is utterly worthless, 20-million Afghanistan was occupied for 2 weeks. When the army became much more fighting fit due to reduction fivefold, almost decade was necessary "to conquer" own rebellious republic with population in 1,5 million. Now, probably, even conquest of Ryazan will need the Hundred's Year War...

Well and about "the newest types of arms". Firstly, they can be considered the newest ones only by us as they were developed in other country which referred to as the USSR and it was really capable to develop and to produce in series new weapon. Now organization of regular flights of strategic aircraft which, by the way, was created to carry out regular flights constantly and continuously is treated as achievement. AS to the zones of navigation - it's in general is delirium, what for do rocket carriers with nuclear weapon onboard barrage trading vessels? It's also was better to keep silent about the flight two Tu-160 to Venezuela because it's a shame to speak about ordinary flight as about achievement - in fact it's not the report of Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

Secondly, what does it mean submarines such as "Borej" equipped with rocket "Bulava"? One existing at present moment not equipped to the end boat of this type - cannot refer to in plural in any way. Indeed it cannot be equipped with rocket "Bulava" which now does not exist - there are only some prototypes which constantly fall.

It looks somehow sad. Besides, it doesn't look similar to reequipment of the army. More likely - to total disarmament and transformation of armed forces of the country in some either auxiliary, or police formations intended not for fighting with external enemy but for suppression of internal one.

А.B.

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