General Staff Is Preparing for Nuclear War with the Georgians

Chief of the Russian General Staff general Nikolay Makarov declared that after disintegration of the USSR possibility of local confrontations on perimeter of Russia increased and under certain circumstances they could outgrow into large-scale war with application of nuclear weapon, close to the Kremlin Interfax informs.

"Possibility of local confrontations practically on all perimeter of borders has sharply increased", - he told on Thursday, making public speech in Public Chamber of the Russian Federation.

"Under certain conditions I don't exclude that local and regional confrontations can outgrow into large-scale war, including with application of the nuclear weapon", - he declared.

From editorial board: To launch war with application of the nuclear weapon is necessary to have it. Chief of General Staff Makarov gave an example of recent confrontation of the Russian Federation with Georgia, but that conflict could have outgrown in nuclear one only at the initiative of one of the parties - after all Georgia having no own nuclear weapon could hardly apply it even having such desire.

Where does great geographer Makarov see prospect of nuclear conflict? Neither Finland, nor Estonia, nor Ukraine, the more so Georgia, Azerbaijan and Mongolia have nuclear weapon. Meanwhile only China and the USA possess it speaking about the borders of the Russian Federation, but these two directions are for today the safest.

May be general Makarov let us know in so veiled way that he is not sure in adequacy of the future owners of "the nuclear button" in Moscow?

If consider the problem a bit more seriously, you can see that certainly expansion of a club of nuclear powers which is going on before our eyes purely arithmetically raises probability of the nuclear conflict. Arithmetically. Let's think, whether nuclear Pakistan with its nuclear triad, capable to destroy the whole planet several times is a serious threat to Russia?

The same Pakistan has, by different estimations, from 60 to 150 nuclear uranium based warheads. Planes F-16 of the American manufacture can act as delivery systems. NATO F-16 used for delivery of the nuclear weapon can carry up to two nuclear aerial bombs B61, but the Pakistan planes F-16 most likely can carry only one nuclear aerial bomb on the central pillar as nuclear warheads being on arms of Pakistan are based on highly enriched uranium and it is heavier, than nuclear aerial bomb B61 which weights 343 kg. In total Pakistan has no more than 40 fighters.

Also Pakistan has planes "Мirage-V" which also can carry nuclear weapon. The exact quantity of Pakistan aviation carriers of nuclear weapon isn't known even to the Indians, most likely Pakistan has aviation park of approximately from 70-90 planes (as F-16 and "Mirage"), but not all of them are capable to carry nuclear weapon onboard without additional modernization.

Combat range of flight of these cars doesn't exceed 1700 kilometers, at the same time the distance to the big city of Russia nearest to Pakistan - Orenburg - 2400 kilometers. At that to hit a blow across Russia the Pakistan Air Forces should overcome about 1200 kilometers of the Kazakhstan territory where there is quite decent air defense on the basis of MiG-31 and complexes С-300, not to mention territories of Tajikistan, Kirghizia and Uzbekistan.

Pakistan has three types of fighting ballistic missiles which are ready and are capable to carry nuclear warhead. These rockets are ballistic short-range missile "Ghaznavi" ("Khatf-3") and "Shahin-1" ("Khatf-4") and also intermediate range missile "Ghauri" ("Khatf-5"). None of them is capable to strike objects in the territory of the Russian Federation.

Pakistan is also developing two types of cruise missiles which can carry the nuclear weapon. Cruise missile "Babur" ("Khatf-7") has a range about 320 km, while on the messages of mass-media (especially Indian) range of this rocket is from 500 to 700 km, in either case it's not a threat for the Russian Federation.

So, what is general Makarov talking about?

Today none of new nuclear powers has delivery system capable to pose serious threat for the territory of the Russian Federation.

If to speak about threats, the unique nuclear power having applied the nuclear weapon is the United States. The USA was also the first which entered possibility of drawing of preventive nuclear attack into its military doctrine. None other country ever hinted of the drawing of nuclear attack across the territory of the Russian Federation. All of them have nuclear forces only as restraint means, frequently for use in local conflicts. Even China possesses rather limited nuclear potential and in the near future doesn't plan to expand it considerably that, maybe, is not logical from the point of view of claims of the Peoples Republic of China for the role of world power.

For example, during one of the discussions in Washington the representative of the Peoples Republic of China openly reproached the USA that being the holder of the world currency it had already depreciated fixed capital of China more, than by half-trillion dollars by way of uncontrolled issue. The answer of representative of the Federal Reserve System was rather laconic in the spirit of ancient Romans: "Declare us war!" There was a silence hanging in the hall for about three minutes, then the discussion came to its end...

General Makarov has some operational and tactical short-sightedness - if the Persians will threaten us with nuclear attack?

While a question of preservation and modernization of a nuclear triad in the Russian Federation is for some reason not being solved. In the field of strategic aircraft we concede to the unique probable opponent in nuclear war in 5 times, in the field of Sea strategic nuclear forces - in 2,5 times. While we have Soviet rockets type "Voevoda" in the inventory, our SRF are still somehow capable to represent something, but already for reconstruction of production of "Voevoda-2" the developers asked twice as much time, than Yangel needed once for creation of his rocket from zero.

That is the question chief of General Staff should worry about being the chief of the country with population of all in 140 million, possessing the biggest in the world territory and the army which on its number already does not enter into ten largest. Possibility of drawing of the preventive nuclear attack is stated now in our military doctrine as well, but soon there will be no possibility to do it. While our military minds look short-sightedly in the side of the borders where frightened Georgians and Tadjiks sit.

Anatoly Baranov

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