If Georgia Is Preparing to Winter War in South Ossetia?

One of those days State Committee on mass media and press of South Ossetia informed referring to Ministry of Defence that Georgia threw armor to the borders. By the data of Ministry of Defence of RSO, in Gori, to a place of disposition of a tank battalion, 28 tanks were taken. While in a village Nikozi, in immediate proximity from the borders of South Ossetia appearance of armored troop-carriers "Cobra" was noticed.

As it frequently happens, mass-media treated given information with mistrust and it appeared impossible technically to check it. The more so Ministry of Internal Affairs of Georgia denied that message and the chief of police of the Georgian region Shida Kartli Vladimir Dzhugeli declared that there's no tank battalion more in Gori, on the place of its disposition apartment houses were being built at the moment.

However on December, 30th agency United Press International writes that representatives of Ministry of Internal Affairs of Georgia nevertheless admitted the fact of moving of armor. Representative of Ministry of Internal Affairs of Georgia Shot Utiashvili thus emphasized that "Cobra" and about 28 tanks were placed to the border already two weeks ago.

From editorial board: In the given case there's, obviously, deliberate disinformation on the part of the Georgian militarians - usual thing during carrying out of military operations. However there is no war in Georgia at the moment. Wherefrom follows (in a much more degree than from the fact of placing of technique) that information resources of the Georgian state work in a mode of wartime. It in itself should guard.

It is necessary also to note that from the point of view of weather conditions situation favours to the beginning of military actions on the part of Georgia - Military - Georgian road is completely blocked by snow blockages that makes placing of armies and technique through Roksky tunnel practically impracticable.

The factor of advantage of the Russian party in aircraft also does not make sense, as during winter period non-flying weather prevails on Caucasus, that especially complicates activity of helicopters, assault aircraft and military - transport aircraft. Besides Russia has no enough pilots capable to fighting starts not only in conditions of bad visibility but also in mountains and at low heights - it demands very high qualification and special preparation, in the Air Forces of Russia there is no pilot - sniper, besides there is practically no pilots of the first class.

On the other hand, bad trafficability of the roads, low visibility, short light day are practically perfect conditions for actions of special troops which the Georgian party has and is not badly prepared for actions in the given district.

It is also necessary to note that New Year's holidays are favorable factor for drawing sudden impact.

It is necessary to remind that now expansion of the Russian military bases in South Ossetia and Abkhazia is far from its accomplishment, that is Ossetic formations are face to face with the Georgian ones and the border is strengthen obviously not good enough. Probably, the next year these lacks can be eliminated but the current year gives the Georgian party serious advantages to a revenge.

By analogy it would be desirable to recollect events on the Tajik-Afghani border in spring of 1995, when in the early spring in conditions of completely non-flying weather insurgents of Movement of Islamic Revival of Tadjikistan (about 7 thousand) from the territory of the adjacent state within 2 months were making attacks on frontier posts and centers of Group of the Russian armies in RT (about 20 thousand all in all). In conditions of non-flying weather and at prolixity of communications natural to the given district, Central Command in Dushanbe and parts of 201st division appeared practically cut off from the boundary groups blocked by insurgents. Insurgents of MIRT concentrated superior forces on key directions and rendered rather sensible impacts to frontier guards. To tell you the truth, they failed to get any frontier post or center - first of all, it happened due to better quality of preparation and arms of frontier guards, secondly - preparation of positions which were fastened since autumn and represented small fortresses was carried out beforehand. Insurgents of MIRT carried only man-portable weapon which did not give them any opportunity to destroy fastened frontier posts in advance.

По аналогии хочется напомнить события на таджикско-афганской границе весной 1995 года, когда ранней весной в условиях полностью нелетной погоды боевики Движения исламского возрождения Таджикистана (численность около 7 тысяч) с территории сопредельного государства в течение 2-х месяцев атаковали заставы и посты Группы российских войск в РТ (численность порядка 20 тысяч). В условиях нелетной погоды и при естественной для данной местности растянутости коммуникаций центральное командование в Душанбе и части 201-й дивизии оказались практически отрезанными от блокированных боевиками пограничных отрядов. Боевики ДИВТ концентрировали превосходящие силы на ключевых направлениях и наносили весьма чувсвтвительные удары пограничникам. Правда, ни одной заставы и даже ни одного поста им взять так и не удалось - сказалось во-первых, лучшее качество подготовки и вооружения пограничников, с другой - была заранее проведена подготовка позиций, которые были укреплены еще с осени и представляли собой маленькие крепости. Боевики ДИВТ были вооружены только легким носимым оружием, что не давало им возможности предварительно разрушить укрепленные заставы.

In a situation on the border of Georgia and South Ossetia local formations will be deprived of advantages in technique - the Georgian party is quite capable of rendering massed artillery impacts on their positions and at certain conditions - to support from air. The Georgian special troops are much better prepared and armed, rather than Tadjik formations of Movement of Islamic Revival of Tajikistan and the defeat in Six-day war practically have not touched these Georgian formations - special troops have been preliminary removed and kept. The Russian frontier guards during that period were, probably, the best fighting formations in the Russian Federation that, probably, is impossible to say about Ossetic armed forces.

It is difficult to say, up to what degree this threat is adequately estimated in Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation - probably, besides forthcoming displacement of 100 thousand officer posts someone prepares plans of meeting of possible aggression on southern borders.

А.B.

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