íichael Delyagin: "Whether Katyn Was Exchanged for Refusal to Make Noise Over Slate Gas? There's No One in Poland to Take to Task and There's No One to Ask in Russia"

Source: Republic of the Two Nations

- In 2010 gross national product of Russia reached 4 percent of growth. Is it possible to speak about stable economic growth in Russia?

- We have economic growth but a bad news is that - this year rise in prices for oil ceased to help us. 4 percent of growth only halfway compensates recession of gross national product in 2009. In the first quarter of this year there was investment recession, investments started their symbolical growth only following the results of April. Real incomes of the population fall. Oil promptly rises in price, while incomes of the population decrease - it's a sign of the deepest structural trouble.

- What are the reasons?

- Corruption almost became political system basis. Many strategic decisions, as soon as it is possible to judge, are accepted on the basis of who, how many and which way can steal during their carrying out. It cardinally distinguishes this type of corruption from traditional one.

The second reason - universal arbitrariness of monopolies, both state and commercial ones: prices grow almost for all. Pricing out monopolists destroy economy. The state doesn't bridle them as they concentrate financial streams and it's easier to receive large corruption incomes from them, than from millions small businessmen. The state is objectively interested in concentration of manufacture (which is necessary for efficiency) but it's also interested in arbitrariness of monopolies. After all, if they don't price out - who will pay bribes?

The Russian economists counted up that for preservation of sociopolitical stability in the public model created in Russia we need to have economic growth not less than by 5,5 percent a year. There will be no such growth third in succession year, there won't be such in the future as modern model of economy can't give such growth any more.

- Whence Vladimir Putin has got optimistic forecasts that in 10 years Russia will enter five largest economy of the world?

- Probably, he read Khruschev's thoughts about communism in 20 years - or may be he was just joking. Russia has already lost to Brazil under gross national product per capita. Soon we will have elections - whether you've ever seen the politician who told unpleasant things before elections? Especially after more than a decade of board?

- What role in economy of Russia is played by Poland?

- Small role. It is a transit zone (in 2010 Poland occupied 8th place in the foreign trade turnover of Russia, 7th place in export, 11st place - in import - assumption of editorial board). A lot of Poles are engaged in Russia in small-scale business because of complexity of economic conjuncture in Poland. Some Russian businessmen transfer their manufacture to Poland - there they meet cruel competition and difficulties in doing business but the model of the European economy there is developed and there are ways of entering markets of the developed European Union countries.

- How Russia treats information about large supplies of slate gas in Poland?

- Slate gas and not only in Poland is meanwhile a kind of paper tiger, not real threat. Advertized cost price of slate gas is received in the best conditions, in practice it's higher as technological reasons forbids to increase extraction over certain level but the main thing is that after such extraction earth surface on big areas should be subjected to expensive recultivation as otherwise to live there will be problematic enough.

- More real threat for Gazprom - condensed gas and construction of gas port in Svinoujsts is the first sign of its appearance.

- The problem of slate gas in Poland - is not the problem of gas but of influence of expectations connected with it on the markets. Intention to extract slate gas doesn't threaten the Russian export directly but market is based on expectations. All think that it will be possible to extract slate gas in considerable quantities - and, accordingly, the price for gas falls, it entails capitalization of Gazprom. Yes, in due course the error becomes obvious, the price and capitalization will be restored - but while the market will be busy with realizing and rectifying of the error, "Gazprom" will sustain losses. Meanwhile it should take credits, develop.

It's quite probable that inexplicable for me and very strange from the point of view of historians recognition of Katyn, not to mention death of a person who exposed falsification of at least part of the documents transferred to Poland was a part of strategic exchange with the Polish management: say, we recognize Katyn and you won't make propaganda noise over slate gas in exchange. Though it is quite possible that there's no one to take to task after tragic accident near Smolensk.

While in Russia after a number of big and small political processes there is nobody who can ask.

- Is gas pipeline Nord Stream a good investment?

It was both political and economic project. Then we were very frightened by "orange" management of Ukraine ready to destroy the country if it will help to do harm Russia. I think that South Stream won't work - it's hardly necessary at normal management of Ukraine.

Nevertheless at estimation of Nord Stream is necessary to take into account probable connection of the part of investors and operators. If it's so, we have an example of classical conflict of interests, at that part of costs of operators is income of investors connected with them. Even if gas will be more expensive, it will be profitable to the company - operator as incomes of oil circulation will compensate possible short-reception of profit at sale. Similar situations take place in many projects; if not to mention politically caused as Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan or Nabucco, it is possible to recollect at least the Caspian pipeline consortium.

I think that Nord Stream won't be thin as the Blue Stream to Turkey in due time.

Send by mail

Print