Horror Story for Obama

The USA can expect a terrorist attack with the use of nuclear or what is more probable biological weapon till 2013. Such data is contained in the report prepared by the bipartisan commission and transferred on Tuesday to the elected vice-president of the USA Joseph Biden.

According to the American telechannel FOX News, full publication of the report is planned for Wednesday. However we can already reproduce its approximate content today - simply because there is nothing essentially new in it, we on FORUM.msk repeatedly wrote on the theme. The fact that, as against the Kremlin "socio-humanitarian thinkers", the American experts look through the literature and our resource is not least of all was proved by us not once.

We wrote rather in detail 2 years ago that the nuclear weapon could appear at the order of non-state organizations. Threat of it is rather great and is really more significant, rather than the nuclear weapon in the hands of the most instable mode.

Today the thought that in 10-15 years the number of powers possessing nuclear weapon will be doubled or even treble is a common place one. However hardly this circumstance will become serious threat for world safety - more likely on the contrary, possession of "weapon of punishment" by big number of players will make force practice in the international relations less applied. If world powers really were aspired to obtain stability and parity and not domination, they would first place see to that at least all countries of "twenty" have nuclear weapon in immediate prospects.

Even if "states - derelicts", such as Northern Korea, will receive to themselves certain quantity of nuclear war heads and means of their delivery, the probability of application by them of the nuclear weapon comes near to zero. The matter is that even the most authoritative states have territory and population, it means also direct obligations before citizens, no matter how deprived of civil rights they were. Besides so-called "states - derelicts" are notable for extreme coherence of leaders and ruling groups with own territory - it's their main and frequently unique property. Thus application of nuclear weapon for them is a suicide in the obvious form.

Plus to that, for drawing significant nuclear attacks new members of nuclear club will have problems with means of delivery for quite long - manufacturing techniques of ballistic missiles or strategic bombers, perhaps, are even more complex and expensive, than actually manufacturing of nuclear charges. We shall say, among the countries already possessing today nuclear ammunition only half is capable of creating own strategic bomber.

The prospect of reception of nuclear weapon by nongovernmental structures, say, by some terrorist underground or criminal corporation is a bit more menacing. Such structures have lower vulnerability and ability to deliver imperceptibly compact nuclear charge to the necessary place without traditional means of delivery for realization of nuclear blackmail is higher. Clearly, authentically confirmed threat to blow up nuclear charge even of low power in the center of New York or London is capable to force the government to agree to any conditions of terrorists.

However here again the reality of the threat is a little bit exaggerated as only such suicide as Bin Laden is capable of carrying out such threat who is ready the rest of his days to stay in prison - there's no thinking about taking advantage of bonuses from the blackmail itself in such situation.

Even single explosion of a nuclear land mine by terrorists will sharply change tolerance of a society all over the world, it will lead to that the threshold of sensitivity to similar excesses will sharply decrease - today getting on the board of a plane you already realize that if it will be grasped by terrorists and the threat similar to 9.11 appears, you will be simply brought down. But all the same you buy a ticket. It is possible to say that the threat of terrorist application of nuclear weapon is absolute only up to the first similar explosion. Then it will already cease to be absolute threat. Private company will not have enough forces to create such quantity of nuclear land mines to shake foundations of the world in 21-st century.

Though if one of the state structures will have conscious desire to change a little the attitude of the world community to liberal freedom, human rights and to add "degree of totalitarianism", it can initiate such nuclear act of terrorism the first in history.

As to the threat of the biological weapon, fortunately, even battle strains of dangerous viruses and bacteria are not so contagious as it looks in fantastic thrillers.

Now officially works on creation and application of bacteriological weapon are not carried out but it's impossible, certainly, to guarantee it, as they do not demand such industrial component as work over nuclear weapon and means of its delivery. Basically there were works with smallpox, a plague, the Siberian ulcer, a number of hemorrhagic fevers. Application of these pathogenic bacteria against the mass armies concentrated along a front line is justified from the military point of view and is feasible if, let's admit, to dump contents with cultures of bacteria above dispositions from the air.

Modern war which is being carried out by limited contingents, without expressed front line already limits application of bacteriological weapon.

Application of bacteriological weapon against peace inhabitants, say, for decrease in economic solvency of the state though seems real in conditions of big cities but actually is not so simply feasible. Most likely, even specially egested infection will get quite long time to get spread - weeks, maybe, even months. During this time infection will be distributed also on those territories which, probably, belong to the most probable opponent.

Besides revealing of infection and its definition will lead to quarantine actions, mass vaccination - in general, there will be result but not so evident. Though application of such strain against which the medicine will be quite powerless is possible, but then the probable aggressor will have a picture of uncontrollable distribution of pandemic like medieval epidemics, when whole cities and countries became empty. However there will be a question on whether someone can take advantage of fruits of such "victory"?

However one shouldn't exclude application of such fighting strains by terrorist organizations. Threat of smallpox is especially serious; it is known that this infection already brought terrible devastation to Europe. Vaccination against smallpox, being earlier general, was stopped already about 20 years ago, the whole generation absolutely defenceless against infection grew all round the world. It is possible that someone, thoroughly vaccinated from smallpox, will decide to experiment with this infection.

One more danger - techniques of decrease in the social and economic statehood using method of introduction of nonlethal but chronic infections causing proof reduction of serviceability or invalidization in general. Similar virus attack is very difficult to be distinguished as well as to accuse somebody of it. We shall say, we are talking about distribution in the certain environment of viruses such as virus of hepatitis got immunodeficiency, etc. Actually it's a matter of implicit form of genocide, say, of "clearing" of some territory as a result of extinction of a nationality occupying it.

However here again carrying out of similar idea will meet a lot of technical and technological difficulties, probably, even formidable on a modern level of knowledge.

However the given report which tomorrow will be presented to president Obama, most likely, has two much more simple and not so global problems:

1. To keep budgetary financing for similar researches in the future.

2. Probably, to increase this financing or to expand the volume of research problems, that is to increase financing again.

А.B.

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