Japan Prepares to Recall the Staff of Representative Offices in RF in Case of War

The known showman and blogger Sergey Stillavin informed that he received the following information:

"I work in the Japanese company. This week the ambassador of Japan called all heads of representative offices of the Japanese companies in Moscow (they communicate intensely with authority here, they know in embassy each japs-expatriot working here by sight! tourists are not counted), so! He called and declared them that all should be ready to depart, ready to go home any time!

"The government of our country at the moment considers possibility of declaration of war to Russia for the purpose of return of northern territories. As population of Japan makes 125 million, while population of Russia - 140 million - it's quite comparable conditions for conducting victorious operations, taking into account that military power of the Russian Federation is in ruinous condition and the government is in weak condition before world community to use nuclear weapon".

- It is necessary to note that I know the author of these lines personally and we can't talk about any forgery, - S.Stillavin adds.

Certainly a source let's say... Though Stalin before war receiving messages about preparing attack of Germans doubted sources.

However here you are the facts.

On February, 21st the ambassador of the USA in Moscow John Beyrle was invited in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia for conversation with the deputy minister of foreign affairs Alexey Borodavkin. As the press-service of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia informs, attention of Beyrle was attracted to recent statements of official representatives of the State department and also embassy of the USA in Moscow which expressed support of the Japanese territorial claims to Russia.

Earlier official representative of US State department Philip Crowley declared that the USA "supports Japan in question related with northern territories". That is related to southern part of Kuriles of Russia. In the embassy of the USA in Moscow they specified that the USA supports Japan in the given question and recognizes the Japanese sovereignty over islands.

So that it was clear the Japanese army and fleet in the Far East is much stronger, than the Russian one which more and more reminds amateur army near to regular army. The only real advantage of our armed forces over Japanese is presence of nuclear arms. The USA is strategic partner of Japan which nuclear forces surpass for today the Russian ones approximately twice, at that in sphere of naval component - fivefold and as regards distant aircraft - 2,5 times. The only thing which supports relative parity is rocket strategic forces but still about four years ago a report was made in Washington according to which the first nuclear attack on objects of the Russian Federation by the USA would bring such damage to the strategic nuclear forces which wouldn't allow us to continue war further. Thus our early warning system is in degrading condition and it can't guarantee timely notification for drawing of punishment blow. Besides under just signed contract SNF-3 the USA is not obliged any more to warn the Russian side about educational and emergency start-ups, that means that we for sure will pass the first blow - even if early warning system will work, while finding-out what's going on will proceeds, rockets of the opponent will already cover their targets. After that our strategic forces will be capable only of single start-ups, which ABM of the probable opponent with high degree of probability can intercept.

The only real chance for us is to put nuclear attack first. Of course, nobody in the Kremlin will go on it.

Situation, actually, is critical. For drawing of absolutely unacceptable damage to the probable opponent there is nuclear triad - Strategic Missile Forces, long-range aviation and underwater nuclear fleet. But during last decade of Putin board our triad has been actually disbanded, the parity with the USA has been liquidated unilaterally, today the Russian Federation possesses two times less quantity of nuclear charges, than the USA, while the quantity was equal 10 years ago.

What could be done?

While the Japanese government recalls nobody, it's only going. That is there's still some time. Surely there's no time to construct new fleet, as well as to update park of front and strategic aircraft - though somebody should take responsibility for long-term backlog in military building. I will remind that the prototype of a fighter of the fifth generation flied up almost 10 years ago but works were stopped and the project was transferred to other company, therefore we still have no perspective modern fighter, while we need it now desperately.

However long-range aviation needs to return to system of alertness which existed in the USSR during years of "cold war", when third of bombers with nuclear weapon onboard (!) was constantly in the air, other third was in airdromes with crews in cabins ready to be launched and the rest was at the time passing preventive maintenance. In such system even if all planes which are in airdromes will be lost at the first nuclear attack, third of vehicles can cause to the opponent unacceptable damage. Though in case of real war considerable part of technique which is in full preflight readiness also can fly up. Such system can at the beginning sober the opponent - though only at the beginning as at similar exploitation nasty technical condition of planes and the air field technics very soon will start to affect. Long-range aviation will start to sustain serious losses even prior to the beginning of operations (even in "peaceful" Soviet period military aircraft sustained constant losses) but it, I will repeat, presumes to win time.

The second moment (I wrote about it earlier) is expansion on islands of Kuril Archipelago of rockets of short-range rockets, capable to bear nuclear charges - "Iskander" and become outdated but quite reliable "Temp-S". These rockets don't get under restrictions under the treaty on the elimination of intermediate-range and shorter-range rockets and have advantage before ICBM as their flight-in time is extremely insignificant, no system of ABM will react to them. The threat of their application on the territory of Japan will possess serious sobering effect.

Possibly, prior to the beginning of fleet modernization (I will remind that operating commander-in-chief of the Navy promised to construct in prospect already 20 aircraft carriers) it is necessary to bring the unique Russian aircapable ship from Northern to Pacific Fleet.

It is necessary to leave the treaty on the elimination of intermediate-range and shorter-range rockets which doesn't permit us to use the rockets capable to cover from territory of Kuriles, Sakhalin and continental part of Primorsk Territory base of the American nuclear fleet on Okinawa without coming to the ballistic course. China and both North and South Korea have rockets of such radius of action, only the Russian Federation and the USA don't have. 

It is necessary to demand at the international level repeated disarmament of Japan - its territorial claims not only to the Russian Federation but also to China, Brunei, Malaysia, Philippines, Taiwan and Vietnam are known. It is necessary to demand also withdrawal of the American fleet from Okinawa which presence forces intensity in the region and warms up revanchist ambitions of Tokyo. It is necessary to declare publicly that first of all naval and objects of the Japanese nuclear power industry, nuclear power stations and chemical plants are entered into flight tasks for the Russian rockets as base of the Japanese "forces of self-defense".

What is also very important - to stop army reform a la Serdyukov, to appoint the Minister of Defence military person, possibly with experience of work in military-industrial complex (as marshal Ustinov), to restore the system of preparation of officers and to reestablish senior division in high schools, otherwise we will stay without mobilization reserve as in 1904. To start preparation of experts together with working out and input of new technics possible to use in service and, probably, in war. In due time Bismarck told that war was won by the Prussian teacher...

Though we can't find Bismarcks in management of the Russian Federation.

Аnatoly Baranov

Send by mail

Print