Egypt Is Approaching the Payoff

Mass anti-governmental performances proceed in the capital of Egypt, tension accrues: ten thousand people stay on the main square of Cairo despite curfew imposing, fighters and helicopters of military-air forces of the country fly over the crowd.

Spontaneous demonstrations in Egypt have been proceeding for six days. In the beginning the police tried to suppress protests, however now the army is on its place. There were practically no law enforcement officers in the Egyptian capital during the day but the streets were patrolled by military men.

On Sunday evening the state news agency of the country informed that the police returned to the streets of the Egyptian cities. Curfew is prolonged for one more hour: earlier the movement in the city was forbidden from 16:00 till 08:00 of local time, now the interdiction will operate from 15:00 till 08:00.

Egyptians found themselves in information blockade. At first the mode of Mubarak forbade Facebook, Twitter and other popular sites. Now there's no access to the Internet in general. Authorities also blocked three networks of mobile communication.

From editorial board: Events in Egypt, as well as events in Tunis should become the object of steadfast studying of the Russian opposition as, despite seeming distinctions - Egypt is a future of the Russian Federation.

Let's say, having delegated power to military men, president Mubarak doesn't hurry up to lay down powers in spite of the fact that US State department and the governments of some leading countries made statements calling him to retire. Moreover, he went the length of rather strong though predicted course, having withdrawn police from the city. Robberies and marauding which began should force to demand the inhabitant "firm hand" - thus armies being in the capital didn't interfere and didn't stop robberies, most likely, taking their time necessary for change of public moods from ecstasy from freedom to the of order.

Citizens of Egypt found themselves in information blockade that also facilitates manipulation with citizens for the authorities.

All key objects of the government are still in mode hands.

Thus, if situation is not solved in the nearest future by resignation of Mubarak, people will simply be tired to revolt and the power will again take the capital under control by means of the army. That is, quite probably, situation in Egypt will anyhow become clear the next days. It is very important to understand how it will happen and who will appear final profit-getter from the current situation.

If to estimate 30 years of Hosni Mubarak's board objectively, he, by and large, practically didn't make errors though he did nothing great that also is a sign of faultlessness of his political line.

After Anvar Sadat Mubarak adhered to a westernized line and it gave him the chance to rule so long. Let's imagine that having received power in 1981, he would remain true to a socialist choice and would be guided by the USSR. 10 years later the USSR betrayed itself, not to mention the allies - the majority of country leaders of socialist camp found themselves in prisons and Ceausescu with the spouse was simply killed. Earlier the head of Afghanistan was betrayed and killed by Najibullah. Most likely, considering specificity of the region, hypothetical pro-Soviet mode in Egypt was not going to turn into something good.

Within the limits of the westernized capitalist policy Mubarak's mode received, probably, maximum of the possible. Egypt, of course, without variants remained Third World country with gross national product twice lower, than even in Turkey that was, obviously, inevitable owing to absence of significant natural resources and underdevelopment of industry. However, recreational potential was realized by Egypt in the appreciable degree, there was even some growth of national economy seen and basically the country firmly entered thirty largest economies of a planet. Modestly but within the limits of those game rules that the mode in Cairo accepted it was simply impossible to win more.

All I am talking about is just to show that the mode in Egypt as like as two peas resembled the modes established on the post-Soviet territory - with bigger or smaller variations including even intention to delegate the power to the son, Gamal Mubarak. Neither democracy, nor progress but slow weaving at the tail-end of the developed economies of the West. Moreover, Mubar managed to do what our dictators would achieve, maybe, only in 30 years of staying in power!

Let's compare - Putin is at the helm for only 12 years, Lukashenko - 17. If to tell about forecast, it's extremely pessimistic. Meanwhile no real dictatorship onsite CIS was dethrone by insurgent people. All "Kremlin bogeyman shows" like orange revolutions of roses, tulips and other took place only in the states where dictatorial modes had not been developed yet. Steady despotism in Turkmenia, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Russia and Belarus even submit no signs of destruction - let's face the truth. Neither 20 protesting near the building of KGB of Belarus, nor several hundreds of protestants who will come today on Triumphalnaya Square will overthrow the mode. 30 thousand Russian tourists who are in Egypt now will bring therefrom everything but not revolutionary spirit.

So, in reality the program of opposition could be planned for 10 -15 years. We prepare for stayer race. But our children will live in different country.

Anatoly Baranov

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