Nurse Paw, Comrades - World Foodstuff Crisis Is Coming

The world economy is threatened with "price shock" for foodstuff which then can pour out in food crisis. As The Financial Times writes, it was informed by Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) at the United Nations. The statement was received after index of agricultural goods of FAO in December grew to a nominal record, having exceeded level of 2007-2008 when food crisis was fixed in the world: then "hungry" revolts passed in 30 poor countries.

According to the senior economist of FAO in Rome Abdolreza Abbassian, it's silly to assume that prices won't grow further. He noticed that in many developing countries, including China and India, inflation already became one of the main economic and political problems. Rise in prices is also potential problem in the developed countries, for example, in Great Britain and Euro area.

Meanwhile, they underline in FAO that index of agricultural goods grows basically at the expense of corn, sugar, oil and meat. These products are less important for the poorest countries, than rice which since 2008 has fallen in price almost twice - to 535 dollars for ton.

Inflation in Russia in 2010, according to preliminary data, made 8,7 percent. Thus the basic jump of prices occurred in foodstuff segment. For example, price for buckwheat in the country increased almost thrice, cabbage and potato - almost twice. Poor harvest which was caused by a drought became one of the main reasons of such rise in prices.

From editorial board: In spite of the fact that the Russian elite is puffed up and makes an effort to enter into a number of "G8" countries, consumption structure in the Russian Federation is more similar to the one of the developing countries, rather than to already developed ones. It means that if inhabitants of the developed countries at approach of adverse economic conjuncture pass to the lowered standard of consumption, denying themselves, say, purchase of the new car or going to simpler resort instead of expensive one, people in Third World countries start to deny themselves the most necessary things - including food.

Concerning Russia it is necessary to note two features:

- Inhabitants of big cities on an extent at least consume last decade more than 50 % of import foodstuff, and the domestic agriculture isn't capable to cover this requirement independently;

- About 25 % of the population of Russia even in the conditions of a successful economic conjuncture have been compelled to save on foodstuff.

It is easy to understand that in conditions of world food crisis considerable part of urban population of the Russian Federation is simply doomed to chronic undereating and the most part - to decrease in quality of food which is even today not too qualitative.

It is necessary to note two peculiarities in connection to Russia:

- for at least last ten years inhabitants of big cities consume more than 50% of import foodstuff, domestic agriculture is incapable to cover this demand independently;

- about 25% of population of Russia even in conditions of successful economic conjuncture were compelled to spare foodstuff.

It is easy to understand that in the conditions of world food crisis the considerable part of urban population of the Russian Federation is simply doomed to chronic undereating, and the most part - on decrease in quality of a food, and without that not too qualitative.

Today it's quite difficult to define price and quantitative parameters of the future deficiency but as a whole it is clear that rise in prices will touch first of all traditionally cheap foodstuff which poor part of the population can use to compensate lack of better and more expensive products. We will say, traditional in a diet of Russians potato today in Moscow in inexpensive network of shops "Mosmart" costs 36 roubles per kg - it's usual weight potato, not washed and packed up. Poor family consisting of three persons easily eats a bag of potato monthly - that is 2100 roubles only for potato, thus average salary in industry still remains at a level of 15 thousand roubles and there are enterprises where people receive only 7 thousand. We will subtract from here 4-5 thousand to pay for habitation and utility bills - so it turns out that after purchase of one bag of potato someone won't have enough money to buy bread.

The essence of the problem is that washing-off of cheap foodstuff is going on - that is washing-off of those products which make it possible to live on scanty salary, pension or unemployment allowance. At that the Russian authorities are obviously incapable to solve this problem, most likely they would not even try to do it.

If the threat of half-hungry existence doesn't make mass of the Russian citizens to act, then the destiny of equatorial Africa only with considerably worse climate is ahead of us.

It's necessary to note that decrease of so called "elite consumption" in the Russian Federation by 10-15% could solve the problem of deficiency of foodstuff for the majority of Russians - due to repartition of means from yachts and football clubs on allowances (let's note to all citizens, not only to the poorest ones) for the main products - milk, meat, vegetables and fruits. It's abundantly clear that ruling in RF authorities won't go on it.

Let's make conclusions.

Anatoly Baranov, editor-in-chief of FROUM.msk

Send by mail

Print