The Kremlin Is Ready to Make Demonstrative Nuclear Attack against Ukraine in the Southern Part of Pripyatsky Bogs

As Newsru.ua informs, application of the Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs with criticism of applications of the Russian officials concerning the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine is distributed in headquarters of the United Nations in New York as official document of the General Assembly of the United Nations.

In the application is emphasized that the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine is seriously worried about applications of the Russian officials in relation to Ukraine. "These applications having frankly the antiUkrainian character, call in question territorial integrity of Ukraine and represent direct intervention in its internal affairs", - is emphasized in the document which is quoted on Tuesday by news service of the United Nations.
In the application is marked that Ukraine in its aspiration to strengthen international peace and safety has refused from the third on its size in the world nuclear arsenal which has stayed on its territory after disintegration of the USSR. From their part the nuclear states including Russia gave Ukraine guarantees of safety fixed in the Budapest memorandum of 1994.

"It's absolutely unacceptable that the Russian Federation as one of the parties of the memorandum and constant member of UNSC which is responsible for maintenance of international peace and safety undertakes unfriendly steps in relation to Ukraine, puts under doubt its territorial integrity and its sovereign right to make decisions concerning own foreign policy choice", - is spoken in the application. It's stressed there that in such situation it became more and more obvious that  Euro-Atlantic choice of Ukraine - is the only way to guarantee safety of the state.

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine demanded from the Russian side to stop "practice of threats" and to observe items of the Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation and Partnership between two countries. "In view of that position expressed by the Russian Federation can have unpredictable consequences for the world and safety, I ask to distribute this letter and the appendix to it as the document of General Assembly to the item 12 of the agenda", - is spoken in the covering letter of the permanent representative of Ukraine in the United Nations Jury Sergeev.

Let's remind during last weeks a number of the Russian officials headed by Vladimir Putin were noticed in making the antiUkrainian statements and threats to the address of Ukraine.

In particular, the State Duma of the Russian Federation offers executive authority to denounce a "big" Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation and Partnership between the Russian Federation and Ukraine in case the last will join NATO Membership Plan of Action, while the chief of the Joint Staff of Armed forces of the Russian Federation general Jury Baluevsky has declared that Russia will undertake actions directed on maintenance of its interests "up to military actions".
On April, 4 in Bucharest Vladimir Putin in conversation with the president of the USA Bush directly declared that Ukraine could lose territorial integrity. "You understand, George, that Ukraine is - not even a state! What is Ukraine? A part of its territories is - the East Europe, another part, and a significant one, is presented by us!".

Then, the newspaper "Commersant" writes, Putin very transparently hinted that "if Ukraine nevertheless will be accepted in NATO, the state would simply stop its existence". That is actually he threatened that "Russia can begin divestiture of Crimea and East Ukraine", - the newspaper quoted the words of its source.

Let's remind that shortly before it Vladimir Putin publicly threatened to aim at Ukraine nuclear rockets. Besides the Kremlin on a regular basis blackmails Kiev with switching-off of gas, at that already twice the threat was made real.

Meanwhile just recently propaganda machine of the Kremlin acted with new threats to the address of Ukraine. In controllable by the administration of the president of Russia, in particular, by Gleb Pavlovsky "Russian Magazine" program article of Igor Dzhadan close to the centers of making military-political decisions of the Russian Federation was published, with small reductions it's brought to the attention of the readers below.

 

Campaign "Mechanical Orange"

It is impossible to do a number on the head of the Russians by overdue references to "international law" and that "Ukraine as the sovereign state is free to decide, which unions it could enter"....
Whether Russia possesses necessary tools of intervention to prevent joining of NATO by Ukraine, or, at least, to prevent finding under NATO bayonets that part of historical Russia where lives the majority which remained faithful to the Russian culture and Russian history?

There are first of all questions to potential of the Russian armed forces, to ability of their command to plan in case of necessary operation and to put it into practice. What operation on liberation of Ukraine and what are in general its chances for success? Here there can be variants. Depending on development of the political environment the scenario of power intervention can follow three basic ways. At the most limited variant the Russian armed forces can occupy only the Crimean peninsula. Such scenario is probable, if the management of Ukraine will continue to contravene articles of the Big Contract regarding basing of the Black Sea fleet. In that case, having declared about necessity to strengthen protection of objects, Russia can launch landing operation using Fleet Marine Force to occupy key elements of infrastructure of Crimea: air stations, ports, road centres.

The Ukrainian units in Crimea are not exposed to direct attack, if showing no resistance. Owing to fluctuations of Kiev management serious resistance at the given scenario is excluded. Unique overland force which resistance is expected is the elite Ukrainian separate battalion of sea infantry of the troops of Coastal defense of Ukraine billeted in Feodosiya. It, however, is a limit of sea infantry of this state. Separate firing on the sea and rare shooting on the Russian military planes are also probable. Kiev also will not send the army to "liberate" peninsula baring other directions. In fact Kiev authority never enjoyed even the slightest support in the Crimea and was always kept using purely administrative force. Crimea for Ukraine is - more likely a headache of which "orange" would hasten to get rid if only they could do it without making harm to the image and in parallel having fixed control over other part of Ukraine. In this case the conflict from a power stage will quickly pass to a stage of political strike in the international institutes. Further positive reaction of the Russian majority of the Crimean autonomy and also fast reorientation of local elites which couldn't be counteracted by "orange" authority from Kiev is completely predicted.

If Russia will not withdraw its military troops for some political reasons, a referendum about independence of the Crimean republic and the further, it is probable in some years, formation of the union of Crimea with Russia or even joining in the structure of Russia is quite possible, if by then Moscow will decide that such step is justified from the point of view of political logic....
At wider variant all southeast of Ukraine, including Crimea, Black Sea regions, Donbass, Kharkov, Dnepropetrovsk become a zone of intervention. These are so-called "white - blue" Russian-speaking territories which population steadily votes against Russophobe parties.

Ethnic self-identification of a part of the population here is not determined yet up to the end, however practically all population without exception treats Russia positively. Here the key industry of Ukraine closely integrated with the Russian industry is concentrated, especially in the sphere of military-industrial complex: all Ukrainian rocket production, factories on manufacture of turbines for the atomic power station, ships and aircraft.
Assigning of this territory by Russia as friendly state formation or even by direct joining in the structure of Russia can have a number of important pros. Firstly, as it has already been said, friendly cultural and genetically Russian population living in historical Russian territories. Problems of Cultural or religious incompatibility which can be seen in case of connection, for example, Abkhazia are excluded with this population.

This population does not possess any other steady identification, except for the Russian one and in case of reunion with Russia will be completely dissolved. Secondly - high educational level of the population of the southeast of Ukraine, its ability and desire to be built in created by Russia clusters of new economy. As well as manpower of the southeast of Ukraine traditionally possess increased mobility as population itself consists of migrants from different areas of Russia.

Connection in this or that form to the Russian civilized project of 15-20 million ethnic Russians will allow to strengthen a nucleus of the Russian civilization....
However, in comparison with more limited scenario resistance of the Ukrainian Russophobes will be more fierce. In fact "orange" Ukraine in this case will lose approximately half of the territory and population, two third of industry, exit to the sea. If now Kiev elites amuse themselves by illusions that in the future Ukraine can apply for a role of one of the largest European players, in case of loss of the Russian-speaking areas these ambitions will not have any, even the most fantastic basis.
Considerable forces of the Ukrainian army which total number of land forces is up to 80 thousand people are billeted on the given territory. Three tank brigades, one of which is situated near Kharkov and others can be put forward from Chernigov and Krivoi Rog areas in this case can resist to the Russian parts and units of Russian-speaking militia.

Taking into account fear before attack of Kiev, the Ukrainian army, most likely, cannot put for standing off the Russian attack more than five mechanized brigades. The same destiny will be with aeromobile parts of Ukraine: they will be tightened to capital instead of participating in military operations.
The question is about the following units: 25-th separate Dnepropetrovsk airborne brigade, 95-th separate aeromobile brigade (Zhitomir), 80-th separate aeromobile regiment (Lvov). 79-th separate aeromobile brigade (Nikolaev), most likely, will not have time to recede and will be surrounded in a place of its disposition. Three regiments of army aircraft of Ukraine cannot render serious resistance to the activity of the 16-th Air army of the Air Forces of the Russian Federation (Кubinka) and also given for strengthening of a shock grouping separate destructive air regiments of the 5-th (Ural) and 6-th (Severomorsk) armies of the Air Force and Air Defence.

Operation can begin from the crushing of the Ukrainian fleet by impacts from air and anti-ship rockets and capture of places of its basing in Odessa, Ochakov, Black Sea, Novoozerny, Nikolaev, Evpatoria and Feodosiya by means of forces of the 810-th separate regiment, the 882-nd assault combat battalion and the 382-nd separate battalion of sea infantry of the Black Sea fleet, at the support of four regiments  of the 55-th division of sea infantry (Vladivostok) thrown by air from Pacific fleet. Separate tank battalion of sea infantry of the Black Sea fleet would be reasonable to put over from Novorossisk to Odessa jumping-off base used for the development of success of infantry landings forces.

However, it is impossible to limit similar operation by landing of air and sea landing. Russia can involve into operation airborne forces and sea infantry. But if the Ukrainian tank and mechanized units for some reasons will show resistance, operation can unfairly be delayed.
Therefore it would be logical if actions of landing troops at the first stage would be supported by impact of heavy overland parts using forces of tank division on a seaside direction with exit to the mouth of Dnepr. After speeding up of the river by a part of available forces - with cutting off of the Ukrainian 79-th separate aeromobile brigade from the overland grouping of the Ukrainian Air Force located in the north - in area of Krivoi Rog and Belaya Tserkov. Final target of movement of motorized and tank units is exit to the borders of Pridnestrovskaya Republic near Pervomaisk.

Effective investigation which is easy to organize taking into account friendly character of local population serves here a pledge of speed and small losses. In particular, too active putting over of the Ukrainian Air Force units to the south if it would begin, would create threat of speeding up of Dnepr, anticipatory air impact on runways of air stations of Kherson, Odessa and Nikolaev is strongly recommended in that case. Planes of tactical aircraft of the Black Sea fleet with anti-radar rockets should be than involved into softening of the Ukrainian air defence.
Action of landing troops in the north, near Kharkov and Dnepropetrovsk is logically to support by the units of the Moscow military district. Here fast scope of cities and encircling of isolated units of the Ukrainian army which, being generated basically from the Russian-speaking people, most likely, would not render serious resistance, if they will lose overland communication with center is the main task.

Actually, the main fights with remained faithful to Kiev "orange" units are expected in Odessa and Nikolaev areas as an exit to Black Sea is the most valuable for the Ukrainian Atlanticists and their owners.
On this site of a theatre of war is possible to wait also appearance of allied "voluntary" or even regular units from such countries of the Atlantic block as Poland and Romania. In this case it would be possible to speak about escalation of the conflict. However, Russia has something to answer to such escalation: formally not provoking NATO on direct intervention by impacts on the territory of NATO countries Russia can start operations against the fleets of these countries in Black and Baltic Seas, for example, detaining and interning them "before finding-out of all circumstances".

Such actions would not have direct military value, however, they would show determination of Russia and would even more frighten such countries as Germany and France. Being afraid to be involved involuntary in the direct conflict with Russia, the last would demand to stop intervention and in the most fortunate case direct split of NATO could happen from which Russia would win even more. However, proceeding from the needs and opportunities of the Russian economy Russia should not postpone solving of the conflict. Contrary to the USA in Iraq and Afghanistan, Russia is quite capable to solve it victoriously, not being involved in wearisome, long-term struggle against ethnically alien population....

The third variant of succession of events assumes in addition to occupation of southeast establishment of the control over Kiev and the central areas. Realization of such scenario, naturally, will demand higher price, however it has advantages: Russia returns to itself control over the oldest center of the Russian spirituality and statehood....
At the moment when the adverse party will understand that the aim of the attack is Kiev, all faithful to "orange" management forces for sure will be removed to the capital and in case of necessity all basic fights will be developed on its approaches. Extreme radicalization of actions from both sides will be possible in this case.

The target of overland mobile forces and air armies in this case is to cut off Kiev from the communications connecting city with the western areas not to admit flooding of the city with armor alive force in the person of western Ukrainian home guard and dragging out of city fights.

Units of the 8-th army corps of Ukraine can render resistance in Kiev area, especially the 1-st separate guard tank brigade earlier deserved attention of "orange" management.

Demonstrative air nuclear attack in stratosphere in the area of southern part of Pripyatsky Bogs made at the night would extremely help in this case. It would not damage essentially but for bringing out of operation electric mains and electric devices in radius of 100 km. But it would be seen in Lvov and even in Poland which hate "Muscovites". It would make at once hotheads sober, clearly having shown serious determination of the Kremlin....
As an additional measure it is possible to propose attacks from air on transport units and areas of concentration of the enemy to the West from Kiev with application of a cassette ammunition, an ammunition of volumetric explosion and white phosphorus. One should not leave gunmen doing nothing: jet systems of valley fire in the suburbs of Kiev are capable to supervise territory in radius of 90 km. Being guided on the given data of pilotless flying devices, they are capable to break approach of enemy reinforcements to  the city without the help of aviation.

Special place in operation will be occupied by lightning capture of Kiev Laurels and its retention up to arrival of the basic forces. Units of the special departments intended for this operation should be ready to operate in full blockade for some time. In the process of mopping-up of the capital from the rests of "orange" Moscow can concentrate on diplomatic front where main "fights" are expected.

They are expected to be hard, however, as a result international situation of Moscow would become only stronger, as it would become clear to those who have doubts that it is better to be friends of Russia, than enemies. Certainly, in the capitals especially persisting in unfriendliness a period of some kind of shock will become, however, when the temperature of relations is without it near to absolute zero, there is simply no place to fall lower. In fact because of globalization the strongest world states depend now on Russia not to the smaller degree, than Russia from them....

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Another close to administration of the president of Russia analyst and ideologist - Alexander Dugin echoes to Igor Dzhadan on the site KM.ru, in the exclusive comment, in particular, he said:

"Intensity in the relations between the Russian Federation and Georgia promptly accrues. Till December (when a decision on granting Georgia and Ukraine of NATO Membership Action Plan will be made) we will hear, how ominously the clocks tick. Therefore it is necessary for us to undertake some actions to break introduction of Georgia into NATO.

At that already today is clear that the Americans will act symmetrically. By the moment of inauguration of the new president of the Russian Federation destructive networks on Caucasus will be activated. It's enough to look what is happening now in Dagestan where almost every day responsible heads are killed. While in Ingushetia there is simply «color revolution». Somehow it has been blocked but it still proceeds. The problems which are objectively generated by specificity of the Chechen society, someone starts to play them out artfully.

Coming back to the conflict between Kadyrov and Yamadaev, I also do not exclude presence here of the third force which understands specificity of the Chechen society and specially adds oil to fire. So that having played on national anarchism of the Chechens, to shake situation in this region and create a problem for Russia. It is especially important before serious actions from our side in relation to Georgia.

The Americans in general very competently occupy themselves with geopolitics. If they will again provoke the conflict on Northern Caucasus, Russia can "shake" strongly. All our victorious statements that here «peace, stability and prosperity» have been fixed are, certainly, an element of information war and propagation. Real picture is absolutely another....
On Northern Caucasus there are still a lot of problems which we solve, I would say, with variable success. We continue to bear presence of different sort of nongovernmental organizations. Moreover, we appoint their heads into the structure of Public Chamber, we present them various statuses, etc. This indecision and inconsistency in "rooting" of the American networks of influence (information, organizational, scientific and so forth) from the Russian society can be expensive for us.

Because in case of aggravation of situation all this American «the fifth column» which we have taken care of will necessarily let us know about itself. As it will decompose determination of the Russian management to take real measures on correction of a situation....

It is necessary to understand that in the process of approaching of a day of joining of NATO Membership Action Plan byGeorgia and Ukraine, Russia will be inevitably involved into the conflict on Northern Caucasus and in Ukraine. Because we cannot allow joining of Ukraine and Georgia into NATO. We simply have no right on it. It's the same as though Putin has recognized Hasavjurtovsky world. Recognition of joining of Georgia and Ukraine of NATO - the same as recognition of independence of the Chechen Republic at the general Lebed.

It would mean to agree with geopolitic defeat of Russia. Therefore Putin and Меdvedev do not have even such prospect as to admit joining of these countries in NATO. It's possible not to admit such scenario of succession of events only rendering active support to separative processes in these countries, undertaking diplomatic actions of a corresponding direction".

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The head of the Ukrainian edition of FORUM.msk Vladimir Filin said that he "is grateful to Igor Dzhadan and Alexander Dugin for frankness and precise narrative of intentions of the Kremlin in relation to Ukraine, that, undoubtedly, will help the Ukrainian people to realize more precisely who is their enemy".

"If war is inevitable, we, certainly, shall fight, - Vladimir Filin, the participant of war in Afghanistan and several local conflicts continued. - In any case Ukraine should enter NATO as it's necessary to run away from the inadequate Kremlin covered with nuclear madness as from a plague" as soon as possible.

Vladimir Filin compared Vladimir Putin with the president of Iran Маhmoud Ahmadinedjad inclined to scandalous statements: "The Iranian leader regularly threatens to destroy Israel and to move all Jews whether to Alaska, or to North Pole. As far as I know, Israelis treat these threats from the state with nuclear ambitions seriously. Why the Ukrainians being in similar situation, when they are openly threaten with nuclear war, should feel something different to the source of the threats?"

"The most reliable and radical way of solving of a problem, both for Israel and for Ukraine, - Vladimir Filin believes, - is liquidation of a source of threats. In our case it's - only the Kremlin mode or the Russian Federation as the state - it would be better if not the Ukrainians, or the Chechens and not at all the USA and NATO but the Russians will make decisions. While, certainly, it is not too late".