We Haven’t Been Observing the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe for Already 24 Hours

Yesterday at midnight in Russia the moratorium on the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe came into action. The official application about it was distributed by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. According to it granting of information against the Treaty stops and quantity and accommodation of our arms and technics will depend now on military-political situation in the world.

 

It is important to note that there is no talking about withdrawal from the Treaty. Introduction by Russia of the moratorium on the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe doesn't mean the end of the dialogue on the Treaty with the Western partners, they say in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of RF.

 

"The Russian Federation is ready to continue the dialogue on the Treaty focused on the result and during the period of the stop of its operation. We hope that such dialogue will fructify, certainly, if other state-participants of the Treaty will show political realism and will search mutually acceptable decisions", - the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia said in the message.

 

- Practically the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation disavowed its hard line against the Treaty, - editor-in-chief of FORUM.msk Anatoly Baranov, who from the very beginning expressed perplexity in relation to position of the Kremlin in the given question, considers.

 

"The matter is that, - Anatoly Baranov considers, - that position of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation in the given question reminds an old saying: "I shall prick out my eye, let my mother-in-law has a boco son-in-law". When the treaty was signed, the USSR had a serious advantage before the countries of NATO taken together on conventional armaments. Besides the Soviet industry could let out such quantity of arms that even at mass losses at full-scale modern war the loss of arms and military technics should be compensated by the work of the military and industrial complex. Today situation cardinally exchanged. For example, in 1991 only "Znamya Truda" could produce up to 140 fighters MiG-29 a year. And today the Russian army receives 1-2 machines in a year and 7-8 more is under repair and modernization, one combat-ready unit is appointed an average to one regiment of the Air Forces. The same situation with all technics, tanks, the Navy, helicopters, with everything. Well, we withdraw from the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe - and what's further? We have the right to increase uncontrollably conventional armaments, but do we have such opportunity? On the other hand, a number of the NATO countries has such opportunity and will use it with pleasure. Who will have benefit from such diplomacy?"

 

In opinion of Moscow, the Treaty signed on the spent of "cold war" has become hopelessly obsolete in its content and doesn't reflect any changes which have occurred in the Europe after disintegration of OVD and expansion of the North Atlantic alliance. It reflects neither changes which occurred from the time of disintegration of Warsaw pact, nor plans of expansion of NATO.

 

It's really so, - Anatoly Baranov considers, - but we do not have time machine to return our military and industrial complex 15 years ago. Romans in such cases said - vae victis!

 

Organization for safety and cooperation in Europe calls Russia to reconsider its decision about suspension of participation in the Treaty. "The moratorium inuring today is - bad news", - the operating chairman of OSCE, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Spain declared.

 

"Loss of system of restrictions provided by the treaty, informing and checks will have negative effect for all and can cause consequences for safety of all Europe", - is spoken in the application.

 

What do really happen in connection with new position of Moscow on the Treaty?

 

From now there is suspension on granting of information on moving of armies, arms and technics to the partners. Granting of such information is stipulated by the Report of the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe on notices and information interchange.

 

According to the Report each state-participant gives to all other state-participants information about totals in each category of conventional armaments and technics limited by the Treaty, about location, quantities and types of conventional armaments and technics in the inventory of the state-participants, about locations and quantities of fighting tanks, fighting armored vehicles, artillery, warplanes and shock helicopters within the limits of area of application being not in inventory, about objects of control and declared places, about position of places from where arms and technics have been withdrawn, about changes in organizational structures or levels of forces, about coming into operation and deactivation of armed forces of the state - participant restricted by the Treaty.

 

Carrying out of inspections and other control measures stipulated by the Report on inspections of the treaty stops. According to the items of the Report on inspections with a view of maintenance of control over observance of positions of the treaty each state-participant has the right to carry out and has obligation to accept within the limits of its area of application inspection groups carrying out inspections of its usual armed forces.

 

Neither Russia, nor its potential opponents during suspension of operation of the Treaty will be bound by limitations including flank ones - on the quantity of arms.

 

- I would understand, - Anatoly Baranov continues, - if the Kremlin feeling that the Treaty becomes unequal and inconvenient for it would start secretly, confidentially to increase conventional armaments, would increase mobilization opportunities of the defensive industry and enterprises of double purpose but at the same time most loudly would shout about disparity of the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe, about necessity of disarmament of all parties of the Treaty, etc. That was the way Germany acted in the 20-30th years preparing its pilots and tankmen on the Soviet grounds near Lipetsk, Tambov and in Volga region ordering strategic materials for themselves on the Soviet factories. Even in our history - for 150 years the Russian princes went to Horde, got humiliated, swore fidelity to khans and fawned before baskaks till the time Moscow could not match itself against Horde. Let's imagine that Alexander Nevsky instead of going to khan for getting label, would stand in the fifth position and declare, say, fuck you... but well, I don't have the army. Meanwhile the Kremlin today shows such position - our conventional armaments are at a level of the scrubby country of the third world and we behave as if we have Brezhnev sitting in the Kremlin and our tanks could reach Paris already tomorrow. We have only one cadre unit on the Western direction and what we will do but for Lukashenko?

 

In November, 1999 at the summit of the Organization For Safety and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) adapted variant of the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe was signed which quantitatively limited five basic categories of conventional armaments: fighting tanks, fighting armored vehicles, artillery, shock helicopters and warplanes. It was supposed that arms will be considered not in some military-political blocks as it was done before but for each separate state-participant. But the adapted agreement was ratified only by 4 countries - Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine - and never went into power.

 

The countries of NATO not only refused to ratify the document but also put forward new requirements to Russia which had nothing in common with the Treaty. For this reason the Russian party made a decision to enter the moratorium on the participation in the Treaty. The president of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin on July, 13th this year signed the decree about suspension of operation of the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe by Russia. In addition to the decree it was explained that the moratorium would operate "until the countries of NATO do not ratify the Agreement on adaptation and will not begin to follow it".

- And they won't, - Anatoly Baranov supposes.