Victor Janukovich Makes a Step Towards Victor Juschenko, but the Second Asks for the Guarantees

The chapter of the Ukrainian representation of the Center of Research of Conflicts of Institute of Problems of Globalization, member of Editorial Board of "FORUM.msk", political scientist Vladimir Filin reported over the telephone from Kiev about the way of searching of the way out from sharp political crisis which broke out in the Ukraine more than a week ago. In particular, Vladimir Filin said:

"Victor Janukovich and the Party of Regions having entered the government made two basic mistakes. One of them - wrong estimation of that foreign policy situation the Ukraine was in. Janukovich thought that the Ukraine can further following tradition balance between Russia, the Europe and the USA, keeping as a whole an independent line of behaviour.

It appeared to be impossible. It was again found out that to rely on today's Russia deprived of a distinct political line is impossible practically in everything. Unless it concerns physical elimination of Max Mad who was already ready to testify financing of election campaigns in the Ukraine and actions against foreign policy of the country by the Kremlin.

On the other hand, the USA extremely rigidly raised the question about membership of the Ukraine in NATO before 2011. When Janukovich disagreed, requested a delay, they put a fat cross on him in Washington. At last when in January he pretended that he didn't understand that Americans waited from him active support of Adamkus's plan on creation of oil and gas passing cartel in structure of the Ukraine, Belarus and Lithuania, they decided beyond the seas not to postpone his removal.

The second mistake of Janukovich was that he forgot that he was supported not by the whole country but only by its half. Firstly it was a question of coalition of the majority with participation of "Our Ukraine" on the basis of Universal. It provided representation in the government of both parts of the Ukraine. However therein the Party of Regions to get all the authority to itself, to buy up fifty deputies of the Supreme Rada and thus to give a lesson to the constitutional majority.

Doing it Janukovich incited against himself not only the West of the Ukraine, but also a part of elite groups of the Center and even the South and the East, for example, "Industrial Union of Donbass". Thus, Julia Timoshenko having got support in the USA where they got disappointed in weak Victor Jushchenko got an opportunity to unite around oneself broad audience of the dissatisfied ones.

If elections on May, 27th will take place, they would be with insignificant overweight won by "orange forces" among which will absolutely dominate BJT. As a result Julia Timoshenko becomes the prime-minister and rather soon establishes authoritative board. The role of the president will be reduced to cleanly representation functions. As like as not that Victor Janukovich will have to leave politics. East oligarches close to the Party of Regions, possibly, will undergo "clearing off", many of them, probably, will have to share their business.

In the sphere of foreign policy Timoshenko, not wishing to repeat mistakes of Janukovich, undoubtedly, will provide introduction of the Ukraine into NATO in 2011 that guarantees personal support of Washington.

Establishment of authoritative authority of Julia Timoshenko following the Georgian sample, obviously, is not favourable both to Janukovich and the president. It leaves a backlash for the compromise but there should be steps towards each other. The Supreme Rada and Janukovich already undertaken such steps having agreed on carrying out in the Ukraine of joint maneuvers with participation of troops of NATO and practically cancelled transition of deputies from one fraction into another.  

But Juschenko rejected to take away his decree about of dissolution of Rada and carrying out of preshedule elections. His surrounding insists on guarantees, in particular, on making Universal equal to a law.

Meanwhile, less and less time is left for finding of the compromise. As Julia Timoshenko does not sit on her hands and searches for opportunities for even greater aggravation of situation to make compromise impossible. In such conditions it is impossible to exclude and direct provocations, including, human victims. After that the situation will become absolutely uncontrollable and will end by total surrender of the Party of Regions which sponsors are rather vulnerable to external pressure through their business interests and bank accounts abroad or practical split of the country into two parts.

At that in the second case Russia also will be pulled in into the funnel of the Ukrainian crisis, Russia is not at all ready to new cold war, besides it's also extremely vulnerable to external financial blackmail through its ruling so-called "elite".

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