Michael Delyagin: “Ukraine Can’t Propose to a Ruling in Russia Click Necessary Scale of Corruption”

Source: Editorial board of “Radio Freedom” in Kiev

- The conflict round foodstuff is an echo of the gas conflict or it has own reasons?

- It concerns gas conflict as well. People clicked teeth against each other strongly and continue doing it till now. But, besides, there is also other, strategic problem: Russia together with Belarus and Kazakhstan forms the Customs Union. Every integration objectively strengthens barriers on external borders of a zone of integration, say, protection of the European Union is rather strict.

Integration inside zone of the Customs Union objectively creates problems for those who are nearby, but don't want to enter it. After all being in the Customs Union we are compelled to consider first of all interests of partners. While competition with the Ukrainian goods in the Russian market already creates problems not only for the Russian manufacturers which are being pressed by the Russian state, but also for Belarusian products which Belarus support, cares and cherishes in every possible way. As the Ukrainian management doesn’t want essentially to enter the Customs Union and to be engaged in integration with Russia, this position is inevitably being reflected on the Ukrainian economy.

It is enough to look at situation with gas. Classics of genre: Belarus gets integrated with Russia - and receives discount for gas. Ukraine doesn’t get integrated - accordingly, there are no bases to reconsider agreement which have been signed with Timoshenko. Condition of the Ukrainian economy if it doesn't get integrated with Russia is a problem of the European Union, not Russia. You made your choice towards Europe - let Europe pays for you. Such logic exists in other branches.

- That is gradual replacement of the Ukrainian products from the markets of the Customs Union will be the result of this conflict?

- I think there are such Ukrainian products which nobody and never will force out from our markets... It is doubtful that Belarus will cover all our market.

- How would you explain futility of the Ukrainian-Russian gas negotiations?

- I melt with this story with our gas dispute. It’s like two beggars fight in a ditch under a factory fence where they can earn money for 5 copecks. Gas story is getting close to its end! – and “gas hysteria” together with it.

Just few years ago I called slate gas “paper tiger”, but it was time of other technologies. Literally for several years they were qualitatively improved. And we see that gas in the USA costs already 96 dollars for one thousand cubic meter and March futures – almost 90.

In this situation after a while the USA will become the exporter of gas – will simply remake import terminals on export ones. Work, by the way, goes on a three-shift basis as if it were China and not America - we will see reindustrialization of the USA on the basis of almost free energy.

Poland, Romania, probably, even Hungary will also start to extract own slate gas - and export of the Russian gas within 20 years will cease to be significant factor for anyone.

In this situation current fights in connection with gas-transport system is short-sightedness from both sides, we have only to make helpless gesture and to smile sadly. Five years ago technologies of extraction of slate gas were imperfect. But time passed - and technologies are worked out.

- When will technologies of slate gas extraction reach the post-Soviet territory and its working out will be put on large-scale production?

- When one of the presidents of the post-Soviet territory will take the plane, go to the USA and agree about transfer of technologies, even on not very favourable conditions – business will go quickly enough. It could have been happened the day before yesterday, it can happen in a month. But, considering “extremely high efficiency of the government” in our countries it can happen in 20 years as well.

- They in Kiev expect that Russia will become more compliant in gas negotiations after presidential election on March, 4th. Early concessions to Ukraine will be considered in Russia as weakness of the power and it will take part of voices away. If these expectations are justified?

- If the Ukrainian power thinks that the Russian foreign policy is defined by the president of the Russian Federation? Good joke.

The Russian foreign policy, it seems to me, in many respects is defined by "Gazprom" and several other formally private companies. Reshuffle is taking place now: the Europeans oppress "Gazprom" for it’s ostensibly being state one - and formally it’s really state - and it’s being replaced by formally private "Novatek". Say, if don't want to buy in state-owned company - buy in the same, only private. Though commercial principle of development of foreign policy won’t change from this reshuffle.

As to the so-called elections - what opinion of the population has to do with them? If it were important for Russia, our officials would carry out intensive election campaign. As we see something muffled, not clear and more directed on justification of officials and not on population propaganda, I wouldn't say that presidential "elections" are expected in Russia. I think the president of the Russian Federation will be appointed to us, if some external special action won’t interfere with it, of course... If there won’t be something extraordinary, the president of Russia is known to all, there’s no uncertainty about it!

Expectation is connected more likely with the fact that till March, 4th management of Russia won't have time to negotiate with Ukraine.

One shouldn’t forget that our economy is more corruption, than yours. Your corruption is smeared on all system of the power, while it has centralized character in Russia. We have vertical of corruption built which some propagandists call “power vertical”. It’s possible to steal much less money at purchase of the Ukrainian gas-transport system, on any terms, than during building of huge pipeline on a bottom of the Black Sea where, as it is known, there’s chemically aggressive hydrogen sulfide in the depth below 200 meters. Therefore more corruption project has priority in comparison with less corruption.

Ukraine is in losing position simply because it can't offer necessary volume of corruption, necessary volume of "kickbacks" and “cut offs”. Not because it’s such fair...

Well, position of Turkey is also important: after it hasn’t been permitted to enter the European Union, it restores Ottoman Empire – applying new methods, in a new kind, in new conditions and we should learn how they do it attentively if we would restore the Soviet Union. For Turkey “the Southern stream” burying "Nabukko" is a way to show not only to the European Union which has offended it, but also to the whole world that Turkey again becomes independent, it has restored real sovereignty and represents independent factor of world politics.

- What prospects for gas negotiations do you see in this connection?

- From formal point of view agreement of Timoshenko with Putin is impregnable: it is a contract, it is signed! The only way to cancel it - to prove in court that it was concluded on corruption basis. But it will not be possible to prove it - madam Timoshenko is not from those who bespeaks herself and Putin won't testify next few years in general. It means that change of the agreement is possible only by mutual consent.

The question appears: whether Ukraine can offer something to Russia so that the last would agree to reduce the price? Theoretically – it can: introduction into the Customs Union with further real integration. But I don't see yet any movement in this direction either from Ukraine, or from Russia. Moreover: Prime Minister Azarov who could put this idea forward in Ukraine is being trashed, as though his surname is Chubays.

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